Executive Summary

Q3 2025 Core FFO was $2.16 per share (flat sequentially vs Q2’s $2.15 and down y/y vs $2.21), while diluted EPS was $0.84 (below y/y) on rental and other property revenues of $554.4M; total NOI inched up sequentially to $338.3M but remained slightly below y/y levels .
Versus S&P Global consensus, MAA modestly missed on revenue ($554.4M vs $555.5M*) and GAAP EPS ($0.84 vs $1.00*), and FFO/sh slightly trailed ($2.14 vs $2.17*); management called Core FFO “in line” with internal expectations and guided Q4 Core FFO to $2.17–$2.29 (midpoint $2.23) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
2025 guidance was revised: GAAP EPS cut to $4.18–$4.30 (from $5.25–$5.49), Core FFO narrowed to $8.68–$8.80 (from $8.65–$8.89), and Same Store revenue growth to -0.25%–0.15%; expense growth lowered to 1.8%–2.6% on favorable property tax trends, and Same Store NOI to -1.85%– -0.85% .
Operating backdrop: occupancy held strong (95.6%), renewal pricing remained resilient (+4.5%), while new-lease pricing stayed negative (-5.2%); blended pricing was +0.3% as supply headwinds persisted but are moderating into 2026, a key stock narrative catalyst .
Balance sheet flexibility improved: revolver upsized to $1.5B and CP program to $750M; post-quarter, MAALP priced $400M 4.650% senior notes due 2033 to term out CP—supporting development starts and opportunistic external growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Resilient operations: Occupancy at 95.6% and record-low turnover (40.2%) supported stable collections; blended lease growth improved y/y by 50 bps to +0.3% despite new supply . CEO: “We delivered Core FFO results in line with expectations… achieving new and renewal pricing… above last year… Solid demand coupled with meaningfully lower levels of new deliveries… position MAA well to capitalize on the coming year” .
Expense tailwinds: 2025 Same Store expense growth midpoint lowered to 2.2% (from 2.25%) on favorable property tax outcomes; Core FFO midpoint trimmed slightly to $8.74 but Q4 Core FFO midpoint set at $2.23, implying sequential uplift .
Balance sheet actions: Credit facility upsized to $1.5B (maturity to Jan 2030) and CP limit to $750M; fixed-rate debt 91.1%, 6.3 years average maturity, Net Debt/Adj. EBITDAre 4.2x, supporting growth pipeline . Post-quarter, $400M 4.650% notes priced to repay CP .

What Went Wrong

New-lease pricing softness: New lease rate growth was -5.2% (renewals +4.5%), keeping blended to +0.3% as operators prioritized occupancy; Same Store revenue -0.3% y/y and Same Store NOI -1.8% y/y . Management: “New lease rates performed below our expectations” .
GAAP EPS and FFO miss vs Street: Revenue and EPS modestly below consensus, with FFO/sh slightly under; higher interest expense y/y ($46.3M vs $42.7M) and non-core items weighed on GAAP EPS . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
2025 GAAP EPS cut: EPS guidance reduced to $4.18–$4.30, reflecting non-core items and timing; Same Store revenue tempered to a midpoint of -0.05% amid slower recovery in new-lease rents .

Financial Results

Key Financials (USD)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Rental & other property revenues ($M)	$551.1	$549.9	$554.4
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.98	$0.92	$0.84
FFO per Share - diluted ($)	$2.10	$2.19	$2.14
Core FFO per Share - diluted ($)	$2.21	$2.15	$2.16
Core AFFO per Share - diluted ($)	$1.93	$1.85	$1.81
Total NOI ($M)	$339.6	$335.2	$338.3

NOI Components (USD)

Component	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Same Store NOI ($M)	$327.9	$322.0
Non-Same Store Communities NOI ($M)	$11.1	$10.6
Lease-up/Development Communities NOI ($M)	$0.3	$1.8
Commercial Property/Land NOI ($M)	$3.6	$3.9
Total NOI ($M)	$339.6	$338.3

Operating KPIs (Same Store)

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Avg. Effective Rent per Unit ($)	$1,690	$1,693
Avg. Physical Occupancy (%)	95.4%	95.6%
Effective Blended Lease Rate Growth (%)	0.5%	0.3%
Effective New Lease Rate Growth (%)	-4.8%	-5.2%
Effective Renewal Lease Rate Growth (%)	4.7%	4.5%
Resident Turnover (TTM, %)	41.0%	40.2%

Consensus vs Actual (Q3 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($)	555,484,730*	554,373,000
GAAP EPS (Primary EPS) ($)	1.0007*	0.8536
FFO / Share (REIT) ($)	2.1709*	2.14

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
GAAP EPS (diluted)	FY 2025	$5.25–$5.49; Mid $5.37	$4.18–$4.30; Mid $4.24	Lowered
Core FFO/sh (diluted)	FY 2025	$8.65–$8.89; Mid $8.77	$8.68–$8.80; Mid $8.74	Narrowed; Mid slightly lower
Core AFFO/sh (diluted)	FY 2025	$7.67–$7.91; Mid $7.79	$7.70–$7.82; Mid $7.76	Narrowed; Mid slightly lower
Same Store property revenue growth	FY 2025	-0.20%–0.40%; Mid 0.10%	-0.25%–0.15%; Mid -0.05%	Lowered
Same Store operating expense growth	FY 2025	1.75%–2.75%; Mid 2.25%	1.80%–2.60%; Mid 2.20%	Lowered midpoint
Same Store NOI growth	FY 2025	-1.90%– -0.40%; Mid -1.15%	-1.85%– -0.85%; Mid -1.35%	Lowered
Core FFO/sh	Q4 2025	—	$2.17–$2.29; Mid $2.23	New quarterly guide
Property Mgmt Expense	FY 2025	—	$74–$76M; Mid $75M	Detailed line
G&A Expense	FY 2025	—	$53–$55M; Mid $54M	Detailed line
Dividend	Q3 2025	$1.515/sh declared	$1.515/sh; annual $6.06	Maintained

Why: Management cited a “lower recovery trajectory on new lease rents” over the summer; expenses helped by favorable property tax valuations .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2025 (Q-1)	Q3 2025 (Current)	Trend
Supply/deliveries and starts	Absorption exceeded deliveries 4 straight quarters; starts well below average; deliveries falling into 2H25/2026 .	Starts 0.2% of inventory in Q3; TTM ~1.8% (half norm); deliveries declining, setting up 2026 recovery .	Improving supply backdrop into 2026
Leasing spreads	Blended +0.5%; new -4.8%; renewals +4.7%; occupancy 95.4% .	Blended +0.3%; new -5.2%; renewals +4.5%; occupancy 95.6%; Dallas/Atlanta improving .	Renewals steady; new leases still negative but stabilizing
Development & external growth	Active pipeline; new Charleston start at 6.1% yield; evaluating KS City buy .	KS City acquired at ~5.8% year-1 yield; Scottsdale shovel-ready at ~6.1% yield; 6–8 projects over next 6 quarters .	Selective growth at 6–6.5% NOI yields
Capital allocation & balance sheet	Net debt/EBITDA ~4x; willing to lean to 4.5–5x for opportunities .	Revolver to $1.5B, CP to $750M; 91% fixed, 6.3 yrs; $400M 2033 notes at 4.650% post-quarter .	More flexibility; terming CP
Technology/AI & service	High Google review leadership; WiFi retrofit rollout to drive other income .	AI pilots for leasing/communications; WiFi projects ~~20 live by YE25 (~~$5M NOI run-rate when fully rolled) .	Execution initiatives building into 2026
Regulatory	—	Rent control risk minimal across footprint (state preemptions) .	Low risk

Management Commentary

“Core FFO results met our expectations… Strong occupancy, solid collections and year over year improvements in new, renewal and blended lease rates… Demand across our markets remains healthy… new deliveries continue to decline… we anticipate a strengthening recovery in pricing power and operating performance.” — Brad Hill, CEO .
“Our balance sheet remains a key strength… revolver expansion… provides exceptional flexibility.” — Brad Hill .
“We are lowering the midpoint of effective rent growth guidance to -0.4%, while maintaining average physical occupancy guidance at 95.6%… property operating expense growth projections [to] 2.2% at the midpoint… adjusting the midpoint of full-year Core FFO to $8.74.” — Clay Holder, CFO .
“Renewal lease over lease performance of +4.5%… blended pricing +0.3%… occupancy 95.6%… uncertainty and higher leasing pressure impacted portions of lease-up; we pushed stabilization for Val Vista by one quarter, but rents are intact.” — Tim Argo .

Q&A Highlights

Seasonality and new-lease trend: Management characterized trends as “normal seasonality,” with negative new-lease trends less severe than typical; renewals remained strong at ~4.5–4.9% into Q4 .
2026 setup: Flat-to-slightly negative earn‑in entering 2026 vs a -40 bps headwind into 2025; deliveries expected to drop ~50% from 2024 peaks, supporting recovery .
Concessions: Slight uptick Q3 vs Q2; typical 0.5–1.0 month free in heavier-supply submarkets; easing in Buckhead/Uptown Dallas while higher in Phoenix/suburban Orlando/downtown Nashville .
Capital allocation: Development yields at ~6–6.5% stack up vs current cost of capital; buybacks remain an option; dispositions ~$300M annually for portfolio quality with limited earnings volatility .
Expenses: Real estate taxes aided by prior-year adjustments; expectation for “normal” 2.5–3.5% growth in 2026; insurance a tailwind in 1H26 .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $554.4M vs $555.5M* (miss), GAAP EPS $0.84 vs $1.00* (miss), FFO/sh $2.14 vs $2.17* (slight miss); Street counts: revenue (15), EPS (10) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Q4 2025: Street sees FFO/sh at ~$2.23* vs company Core FFO guide $2.17–$2.29 (mid $2.23), broadly aligned; Street revenue ~$557.8M* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

The operating base is holding: occupancy and renewals remain solid, and blended pricing is positive despite negative new-lease spreads; this supports Core FFO stability into Q4 (midpoint $2.23) .
2025 EPS was reset lower on non-core/GAAP factors, but expense tailwinds (taxes/insurance) and moderating supply set up a more favorable 2026 earnings recovery narrative .
Balance sheet firepower improved (revolver, CP, and $400M 2033 notes), enabling ~6–6.5% NOI-yield development starts without stressing leverage (Net Debt/Adj. EBITDAre 4.2x) .
Watch markets with early inflections (Dallas/Atlanta urban submarkets) as concessions recede; laggards like Austin/Nashville should follow as deliveries decline and absorption remains strong .
Near-term trading lens: modest Q3 misses vs Street were offset by an in-line Core FFO trajectory and Q4 guide; the stock narrative hinges on evidence of new-lease spread improvement into spring/summer 2026 and execution on development/redevelopment returns .

Additional Data Points

Dividend maintained at $1.515/sh (127th consecutive), annualized $6.06 .
Debt metrics as of 9/30/25: total debt $5.20B, fixed 91.1%, avg rate 3.8%, avg maturity 6.3 yrs; covenant cushions remain wide .

Notes: All company figures are from MAA’s Q3 2025 8‑K/press release and supplemental schedules and Q3 2025 earnings call transcript. Consensus figures marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC. (MAA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary